martes, 3 de julio de 2018


Today's WorldView
Edited by Max J. Rosenthal and Ruby Mellen
BY ISHAAN THAROOR

BY ISHAAN THAROOR
 

Trump said North Korea was 'no longer a nuclear threat.' His spies disagree.

Over the weekend, separate reports citing U.S. officials seemed to confirm what so many experts have long feared — that despite the overtures and sunny proclamations made at the Singapore summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang probably has little interest in dismantling its nuclear program.
My colleagues Ellen Nakashima and Joby Warrick reported that evidence gathered by U.S. intelligence officials in the weeks since the June 12 summit led to the conclusion that North Korea “does not intend to fully surrender its nuclear stockpile, and instead is considering ways to conceal the number of weapons it has and secret production facilities.” Their reporting was corroborated by an earlier NBC story published Friday.
The North Koreans may have stopped missile and nuclear tests in recent months, but as one U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence told NBC, “there's no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production. There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U.S.”
This line of thinking is far removed from Trump's triumphant declarations. The president tweeted last month that there “was no longer a nuclear threat” posed by North Korea. While many of Trump's detractors celebrated the cooling of tensions that surrounds the current phase of diplomacy, few shared his optimism about the prospects of “denuclearization.”
“Intelligence officials and many North Korea experts have generally taken a more cautious view, noting that leader Kim Jong Un’s vague commitment to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula is a near-echo of earlier pledges from North Korean leaders over the past two decades, even as they accelerated efforts to build nuclear weapons in secret,” Nakashima and Warrick reported.
They added that, “North Korean officials are exploring ways to deceive Washington about the number of nuclear warheads, and missiles and the types and numbers of facilities they have, believing that the United States is not aware of the full range of their activities.” While American officials believe North Korea has amassed some 65 warheads, it seems North Korea will declare far fewer.
My colleagues also reported that the North Koreans have operated “a secret underground uranium enrichment site known as Kangson,” which was first reported in May by The Washington Post. It is believed to have twice the uranium enrichment capacity of the lone enrichment facility acknowledged by Pyongyang.
On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal's Jonathan Cheng reported that experts monitoring satellite imagery believe North Korea is also expanding a key missile-manufacturing plant, which could produce ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
“The observed activity appears inconsistent with a North Korean intent to abandon its nuclear weapons programs,” Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and North Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, told NBC. “There seems little reason to continue expansion plans if the regime intended to dismantle them as would be required under a denuclearization agreement.”
Trump administration officials are also less bullish than the president was. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a Senate briefing last week that Trump only believed the North Korean threat had been “reduced,” not ended. According to some reports, Pompeo may make another visit to North Korea this week for more talks.
Appearing on a number of Sunday morning news shows, national security adviser John Bolton sought to dispel concerns that the White House is being hoodwinked. There is “nobody involved in this discussion with North Korea in the administration who is overburdened by naivete,” he told Fox News.
“We know exactly what the risks are — them using negotiations to drag out the length of time they have to continue their nuclear, chemical, biological weapons programs and ballistic missiles,” Bolton told CBS. “There’s not any starry-eyed feeling among the group doing this. We’re well aware of what the North Koreans have done in the past.”
North Korea's past behavior offered a cautionary tale for the Trump administration ahead of the Singapore summit, with Pyongyang having reneged on earlier airy promises regarding denuclearization. Trump cast himself as the American president who, this time, wouldn't get played. Even so, the White House extracted few genuine commitments from Pyongyang while it granted Kim a moment of legitimacy on the world stage and canceled planned military exercises with South Korea.
“North Korea has made no new commitments to denuclearization, and in fact has backed away from its previous commitments,” Abraham M. Denmark, Asia Program director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told a House committee in late June in testimony cited by my colleagues. “North Korea remains free to manufacture more nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and other weapons of mass destruction — even though it has unilaterally frozen testing of its nuclear weapons and certain ballistic missiles. There is no deadline for them to eliminate their illegal capabilities, or even freeze their continued production.”
And now, Trump's much-touted campaign of “maximum pressure” on North Korea appears to have run its course. China, a key North Korean interlocutor, is now edging toward a trade war with the Trump administration. It's hard to envision Beijing squeezing Pyongyang any further on Washington's behalf.
“A strategy of sanctions is like a cat-and-mouse game,” wrote Cho Yi-Jun, Washington correspondent for South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo. “The subject constantly looks for ways to avoid them, while the enforcing side keeps on looking for possible weaknesses. Without additional pressure, existing sanctions are useless.”
This, too, was predictable. “Having apparently helped get North Korea to the table, it is unlikely that China will ever again agree to a maximum pressure campaign,” arms control experts Vipin Narang and Ankit Panda noted on the eve of the Singapore summit. Tightening sanctions would only destabilize North Korea, and China fears a desperate and broken North Korea on its border more than it fears a nuclear North Korea. Even if sanctions by the United States and the United Nations Security Council remain in place, without additional Chinese implementation, North Korea will find itself enjoying considerable breathing space.”
In an interview with Fox Business on Sunday, Trump himself revealed a hint of skepticism: “I made a deal with him, I shook hands with him, I really believe he means it,” Trump said, referring to his encounter with Kim. “Now, is it possible? Have I been in deals, have you been in things where people didn’t work out? It’s possible.”

Chino Online 2018
Niveles 1 y 2. Disponible online en todo momento y lugar



Martes 3 de julio, 9.00 horas

La agenda del G20 durante la Presidencia Argentina 2018
Presentación del documento "La agenda del G20 durante la Presidencia Argentina 2018", realizado por Alfredo Gutiérrez Girault, José Siaba Serrate e Ignacio Peña, con el apoyo de la Fundación Konrad Adenauer en Argentina

Apertura
Adalberto Rodríguez Giavarini   Presidente del CARI
Olaf Jacob   Representante de la Fundación Konrad Adenauer en Argentina

Panorama de la Economía Mundial
Alfredo Gutiérrez Girault   Economista Jefe del Instituto Argentino de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IAEF). Miembro Consultor del CARI

Los Desafíos para el Orden Financiero: Balance y Perspectivas
José Siaba Serrate   Director de la consultora Siaba Serrate. Miembro titular de la Academia de Mercado de Capitales. Miembro Consejero del CARI

La Inclusión en la Era del Tsunami Tecnológico
Ignacio Peña   Economista, Consultor Internacional, Fundador y CEO en Surfing Tsunamis

CARI / Uruguay 1037, piso 1°, C1016ACA Buenos Aires, Argentina / Teléfono (0054) 11-4811-0071 al 74 / Fax (0054) 11-4815-4742


The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus Newsletter
Newsletter No. 13, 2018     

July 1 
, 2018


New Articles

     
Byung-Ho Chung






     
CedarBough T. Saeji, Gina Choi, Darby Selinger, Guy Shababo, Elliott Y.N. Cheung, Ali Khalaf, Tessa Owens, and Kyle Tang

  
 
      
Ryan Gallagher 





 
       
Jon Mitchell




   
 
  

APJ will meet at SOPHIA UNIVERSITY at Yotsuya Station in room 10-301 (Building 10, 3rd floor) on THURSDAY JULY 5 BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM with dinner to follow at Hokkaido restaurant https://gurunavi.com/en/g306016/rst/ 
To join us or to meet Mark Selden in Tokyo between July 3 and 5 ms44@cornell.edu

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JOJOSCOPE CONEXAO BRASIL JAPAO




Posted: 29 Jun 2018 04:09 AM PDT
Chegou o dia !! No dia 30 de junho começa a circular o novo trem bala (shinkansen) da Hello, Kitty
 no Japão. O verão vai ficar mais divertido para viajar. A famosa gatinha é o tema da decoração dos 
trens-bala do serviço Kodama, entre as estações de Shin-Osaka e Fukuoka. O primeiro vagão foi 
remodelado para ser um espaço de exposição e de vendas de artigos relacionados à Kitty e 
produtos regionais, e o segundo vagão traz a gatinha nos detalhes.
Protótipo clean e divertido: o novo Shinkansen da Hello Kitty só vai funcionar entre as estações Shin Osaka e Hakata.

clique para visualizar o video de apresentação dos vagões para a imprensa. Clique para visualizar o comercial de lançamento. Clique aqui para entrar no site oficial do Shinkansen da Hello Kitty. A página contém a história deste projeto, descrição do design, como será a lojinha de produtos Hello, Kitty e o time table de funcionamento, com o horário de partida de chegada para cada estação !! O site está ainda somente em japonês mas é fácil acompanhar os dados.
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Asian Currents


Dear Asian Currents subscribers

Today was the first day proper of the Asian Studies Association of Australia's 2018 conference, you can read about some of the highlights from the day in the new Asian Currents post, and you can watch the opening plenary session, Why it's a Great Time to be an Asianist.

You can also join the online conversation using #ASAA2018.

Kind regards
Rebecca Gidley
ASAA Digital Media Officer