On this day that our British friends have declared their intentions to withdraw from the European Union, I hope this email finds you well.
I am writing to share with you the English-language version of my article on Chinese investment activity in Latin America and the Caribbean, just published by the Interamerican Development Bank. The article is a short characterization of the motivations and patterns for the activities by Chinese companies in the region, in each of the principal sectors where that activity has occurred: petroleum and mining, agriculture, construction, manufacturing and retail, and services. It also examines the effect of the deceleration of China's GDP growth on those investments. It finds that while softer Chinese demand may postpone some discretionary investment in sectors such as petroleum, it will probably not impact sectors such as agriculture, where the continued growth in Chinese domestic demand for animal protein will continue to drive imports of meat and products such as soy and fishmeal. It also finds that Chinese investment will continue to be strong in manufacturing and technology sectors, where the acquisition of capabilities is privileged by the Chinese state, and where investment by Chinese companies is driven more by targeting growing Latin American markets, than it is by demand in the PRC. The article also finds that slowing Chinese growth may actually accelerate the push by its banks and construction companies, with problems in China in the financial and construction sectors pushing Chinese banks and construction companies abroad to shore up their balance sheets.
The article is available with this email as a PDF, and also, in both English and Spanish forms, through the Interamerican Development Bank, who published it, at:
https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/7667
The full publication also contains a number of excellent articles by leading China-America scholars-I encourage you to take a look at all the work that is offered in that edition.
Thank you, as always, for the opportunity to continue in contact.
Respectfully,
Evan
Dr. R. Evan Ellis
Research Professor of Latin American Studies U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
47 Ashburn Drive
Carlisle, PA 17013
Tel: (717) 245-4085
Cell: (703) 328-7770
Fax: (717) 245-3820
