Today's Insight
Desginating the Muslim
Brotherhood As Terrorists Is Complicated | Bennett Seftel, The Cipher
Brief
The Trump Administration is considering whether to designate the Muslim
Brotherhood – a movement that espouses a doctrine of political Islam and
has millions of supporters across the Middle East – as a terrorist
organization. But experts caution about the potential for unintended
consequences, backlash, and legal challenges to such a move.
Expert Commentary
The Potential to Increase the
Terrorist Threat | Michele Dunne, Director and Senior Fellow, Middle
East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
"Since the Sisi-led coup, the Brotherhood (now in prison, exile, or
underground) has been riven by a debate over strategy. While the
imprisoned leadership and exiled leaders in London have continued to
insist on nonviolent resistance, young members in Egypt have ridiculed
that stance and pressed for permission to use violence against the Sisi
government."
The U.S. Should Be Wary About
Overplaying its Hand | Eric Trager, Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East
Policy
Ultimately, most Brotherhood chapters in their present forms are more
akin to hate groups than terrorist organizations: they promote bigotry
and embrace attacks against a wide range of targets ideologically, but in
most cases, there isn’t sufficient evidence to demonstrate that they
organized those attacks.
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Today's Column: Agenda Setter
Questions Remain Until
Trump Makes Russia Intentions Clear | John Sipher, Former Member, CIA's Senior Intelligence
Service
"The more benign explanation is that he naively sees Russia as a
European partner who should be able to help us deal with trouble spots in
the Middle East and Asia. The second option is more troubling
because it suggests criminality and could potentially damage or destroy
the Trump Presidency."
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15 Minutes
This week, The Cipher Brief's Executive Producer and Reporter Leone
Lakhani speaks to Haras Rafiq, CEO of Quilliam, a UK-based
organization whose mission is to counter extremism, in every form. Much
of its work surrounds counter-messaging Islamism by creating
alternatives and empowering moderate Islamic voices. Leone spoke to
Haras about how Quilliam conveys its message.
Listen to 15 Minutes
with Quilliam's Haras Rafiq on Countering Extremism
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Don't Miss On The Cipher Brief
New Threat Landscape in
Southeast Asia | Rohan
Gunaratna, Professor and Head, International Centre for Political
Violence and Terrorism Research, Nanyang Technological University
Southeast Asia is emerging as an ISIS battlefield, and security threats
in the region will accelerate and grow with the group’s global expansion
– with an ISIS-centric threat landscape supplanting an al Qaeda-centric
one.
America First Equals
America Last | Ambassador
Richard Boucher, Former Assistant Secretary of State for South and
Central Asia
China seems to be the main beneficiary of “America First.” Indeed, one
Chinese scholar told me last summer, “We like Trump because he’ll vacate
space for us to move into.” However, China is not always the instigator:
The Philippine, Indian, and Kazakh examples should show us that others
are looking to take care of themselves.
Insider Threat Special
Report: Snowden's Impact on Business, Government | Steven Bay, Former Contractor, National Security Agency
"In my opinion, the Snowden revelations impacted businesses’
willingness to work with the government and the trust foreign countries
have in the products and services these companies offer."
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The Cipher Take
Turkey and U.S. Discuss
Joint Action against ISIS
According to Reuters,
sources close to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday
that Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump had agreed to pursue “joint
action” against ISIS in the cities of Al Bab and Raqqa. Erdogan spokesman
Ibrahim Kalin told Turkish television broadcaster NTV that “operational
details were not discussed on this call.” However, Reuters’ sources said
that the two presidents discussed a wide range of issues, including U.S.
support for the PYD – a militant Syrian Kurdish group – and the creation
of “safe zones” for Syrian refugees. They also claim that Trump’s new CIA
Director, Mike Pompeo, will visit Turkey on Thursday to discuss these
issues in depth. The White House acknowledged the phone call but gave few
details.
The Cipher Take:
It is difficult to
tell what plans the new administration has for Turkey,
especially concerning its role in the Syrian conflict. However, two
things are clear. First, that the Trump administration’s primary focus in
Syria will be to oust ISIS from its capital in Raqqa and, second, that
few options are off the table in pursuit of this goal. For Erdogan, this
offers a new opportunity to revisit areas of dispute with the Obama
administration, namely U.S. support for the Kurdish PYD and the
extradition of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen – whom Erdogan blames for
the failed coup attempt last July – from Pennsylvania. The question of support
for the PYD, whose militia wing forms the backbone of the U.S.-backed SDF
(Syrian Democratic Forces), is most likely to catch Trump’s interest. Up
until now, the SDF has been the only realistic local force capable of
capturing Raqqa but enthusiastic military support from Turkey and allied
Syrian rebels might change that equation. At the same time, the issue of
Gulen’s extradition to Turkey gives Trump a powerful bargaining chip
with Ankara. The question is, what will he bargain for?
Six Afghan Red Cross
Workers Killed by ISIS
Six Afghans working for the Red Cross (ICRC) have been
killed and two others kidnapped by suspected Islamic State (ISIS)
militants in Afghanistan’s northern Jowzjan Province. The ICRC
subsequently announced that it was putting its work in Afghanistan on
temporary hold; Afghanistan is the ICRC's fourth largest
humanitarian program worldwide. The Taliban announced that they were not
involved in the attack and stated their intentions to help locate the
perpetrators.
The Cipher Take:
In addition to Taliban
orchestrated violence throughout Afghanistan, ISIS has also conducted
several attacks, primarily against the country’s Shia population. There
has also been regular infighting between the two groups since ISIS burst
onto the scene in Afghanistan in late 2014. ISIS has established a base
in the eastern Afghan state of Nangarhar on the border with Pakistan, but
has also gradually expanded in recent months and are thought to be very
active in Afghanistan’s northern Jowzjan Province.
Japan's Abe to Visit
Trump, Discuss Jobs, Defense, Trade; Play Golf
Today, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrives in
Washington for a state visit with President Donald Trump. In their first
meeting, Abe is expected to bring up Japanese investments that could
generate as many as 700,000 jobs in America, increasing military
cooperation, and, in return, ask for a bilateral trade agreement between
the U.S. and Japan. After their meeting, the two are scheduled to go to
Trump’s resort in Florida and play golf.
The Cipher Take:
Abe has made no secret
that he intends to build a close relationship with Trump; Abe was the
first head of state to meet Trump in person after his election win. Many
in the Japanese government feel that a strong relationship with the U.S.
is key to supporting Japanese economic and security interests, and Abe is
betting that building a personal relationship is the best way for his
plans to succeed. Trump remembers the days of “Japan, Inc.” when many
U.S. brands and properties were bought up by Japanese investors, and Abe
is betting that facetime with the President will help convince him that
these initiatives are in both countries’ interests. The stakes for Abe
are high. Japan’s economy is struggling to grow, and with high public
debt, more military spending would be very unpopular. The Japanese will
expect Abe to cut a good deal, though this may be difficult to pull off
when Trump, America’s Deal Maker-in-Chief, has much less on the line.
China Sends Coast Guard
Ships Close to Disputed East China Sea Islands
On Monday, China announced it had sailed three coast guard
ships through the territorial waters claimed by Japan that surround the
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands; islands China also claims as its sovereign
territory. The move follows the visit of U.S. Secretary James Mattis to
Tokyo where he reiterated that the U.S. recognizes the Senkaku Islands as
covered by Article 5, the clause of the alliance stating the U.S. will
defend Japanese territory.
The Cipher Take:
This is the fourth
such transit by Chinese coast guard vessels this year, which puts it on
pace with last year’s total of 36 transits through the disputed waters.
Like its South China Sea claims, China believes these islands are part of
its historic territory, and that the foreign powers who created the
modern international system have deprived it of its sovereign rights. As
such, China is unlikely to abandon the
claim anytime soon. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson spoke with his Japanese counterpart and reiterated Mattis’
statements. For a disputed territory, U.S. commitment doesn’t get much
stronger than that. Expect the impasse between Japan and China, and
therefore regional tensions, to continue.
May Rejects Rumors of
Scottish Independence
On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Theresa May struck
back at reports that the devolved Scottish government might be planning
to hold another referendum on Scottish independence, saying “we don’t
believe there should be a second referendum. There has been a referendum
[held in 2014]. It was clear, decisive, and legal.” This statement comes
on the heels of a symbolic vote held on Tuesday, where members of the
devolved Scottish parliament overwhelmingly voted down the “Brexit”
legislation, which May plans to present to parliament. London does not
need the consent of Scotland’s devolved government, based in Edinburgh,
to trigger Article 50 and exit the EU. However, Scots overwhelmingly
voted against leaving the EU in the Brexit referendum held last June, and
Edinburgh is demanding that May hear their opposition to her plans to
pursue a “hard Brexit” from the Union.
The Cipher Take:
According to the
Dundee-based Courier newspaper, Nicola Sturgeon and her Scottish
Nationalist Party (SNP) are preparing to demand a new independence
referendum within two weeks. That may be premature, but Sturgeon has long
warned that another referendum could follow Scots being “torn out of the
EU against our will.” The real question is whether public opinion
supports that threat. A poll published over the weekend found that only
43 percent of Scots support independence from the UK. However, a new poll
published on Wednesday found 49 percent in favor of independence. That
number could easily rise when London does trigger Article 50 – planned
for March – and exit negotiations begin. For her part, May has thus far
dismissed Edinburgh’s demands for consultation and the threat of Scottish
independence. If she is wrong, the UK could find itself entering Brexit
negotiations a little bit smaller.
ISIS-Linked Hackers
Target UK's National Health Service
Three weeks ago, ISIS-linked hackers based in North Africa
targeted
six of the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) websites in the southwest
of England. Graphic images of violence from Syria’s ongoing civil war
were displayed on the sites along with a declaration that the sabotage
operation was in retaliation for the West’s foreign policies in the
Middle East. The group, calling itself the Tunisian Fallaga Team,
breached NHS websites concerning issues ranging from childcare to
funding. Though it appears that patient data was vulnerable to
exfiltration during the attacks, seemingly none have been compromised.
The Cipher Take:
While this is the
first instance of a concerted ISIS effort to target the NHS, it is a
logical target for the terrorist group—and many criminals and
nation-states—as every British citizen comes into contact with it on a
regular basis and it holds large quantities of very sensitive data. The
Tunisian Fallaga Team is one of multiple ISIS-affiliated hacker
groups—which also include Global Islamic Caliphate and Team System DZ—who
have coordinated attacks that have targeted airlines, media, U.S. Central
Command’s Twitter and Youtube accounts, and published personal details of
retired U.S. military personnel. The group became particularly active
following the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, targeting organizations that
condemned the violence. While the cyber operations undertaken by
ISIS-affiliated groups remain limited to unsophisticated website
defacement campaigns, they could quickly evolve into more disruptive
attacks, particularly if they decide to outsource their cyber operations
to more capable criminal entities.
Surveillance Malware
Found on Diplomatic Sites
Security firm Forcepoint revealed
that it found potentially Russian-linked surveillance malware imitating
web analytics script on diplomatic, scientific, media, and recreational
sites. The hackers inject code that looks similar to common web analytics
tools such as Google Analytics - a tactic commonly used by the
Russian-linked Turla hacker group, which is known to target diplomats. So
far, the malware has been found on a variety of websites, including those
belonging to the foreign affairs ministries of Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and
Uzbekistan, several embassies in Washington, DC, a political party in
Austria, an unspecified international organization based in France, an
African Union site, and a Somalian news organization.
The Cipher Take:
It appears this surveillance
campaign dates back to December 2015, though the malware was regularly
updated with new malicious command servers throughout 2016. While there
are no definitive connections, the methods resemble those used by the
Turla group, a Russian-speaking group thought to be sponsored by the
Russian government, that is known for hiding their command and control
servers by hijacking satellite data streams and using the infrastructure
of legitimate users—mainly through providers in the Middle East and Africa—to
make attribution through forensic analysis difficult. The group has been
conducting advanced cyber espionage operations since 2007, targeting
government agencies, embassies, and military agencies in over 40
countries, with particular emphasis on former Soviet satellite states in
Eastern Europe.
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Upcoming Cipher Brief Events
National Interests vs.
International Provocations: China Pushes the Line in East Asia | Tuesday, February 28
Our February Georgetown Salon Series event will focus on the global
implications of China's island-building campaign in the South China Sea.
Leading the discussion with be Admiral Jon Greenert, former Chief of
Naval Operations for the U.S. Navy; Timothy Heath, Senior International
Defense Research Analyst at RAND Corporation; and Greg Poling,
Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. The
discussion will be moderated by The Cipher Brief's CEO & Publisher,
Suzanne Kelly.
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