Hong Kong’s stunning vote deepens China’s
conundrum
People celebrate Monday outside a polling
station in Hong Kong. (Billy H.C. Kwok/Getty Images)
For months,
millions of Hong Kongers have taken to the streets in defense of
their unique political freedoms, clamoring for greater
democratic reforms while waging street battles with the city’s
increasingly brutal police forces. On Sunday, they delivered the
same message in a different format: the ballot box.
Backed by record voter turnout, pro-democracy politicians swept
Hong Kong’s local district elections, seizing control of more than
80 percent of the contested seats. The verdict was unmistakable and another stinging riposte
to China’s authoritarian leadership in Beijing.
Unlike Hong
Kong’s process to select its leader — a baroque system involving an
election committee of around 1,200 members, many of whom are handpicked by Beijing — these local elections reflected more
directly the public mood in the former British colony. In the
run-up to the vote, there was still speculation that it could be
canceled amid the chaos and violence convulsing the city. Some
analysts reckoned that fatigue with the protests , as well as the greater
financial clout and resources of pro-Beijing parties in the city,
would humble the pro-democracy camp. But the opposite turned out to be the case: The elections were carried out in an orderly and
peaceful fashion, with more than 70 percent voter turnout. By
comparison, district elections in 2015 yielded only a 47 percent
turnout.
“The councils
have very little actual power,” explained the New
York Times. “They advise the government on neighborhood issues
like the location of bus stops, not big questions like democracy.
But the democrats’ victory also means that they will gain a larger
say on the committee that chooses the territory’s chief executive
in 2022.”
Hong Kong’s
pro-democracy supporters now believe they have a mandate to press
forward their many demands, including possibly the resignation
of Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s embattled pro-Beijing leader, as well as an inquest into police accountability after months of violence and
a slate of deep political reforms. “The
district council election
fully shows that Hong Kong peoplewil not accept the
authoritarianism of the central government, Wu Chi-wai,
chairman of the Democratic Party, said to my colleagues.“The Hong
Kong government must now seriously consider public opinion.”
Lam could only
muster a timid statement, indicatin thatshe recognized “that the
results reflect people’s dissatisfaction with the curret situation
and the deep-seated problems in society” and that her government
would “seriously reflect.”
For Lam, who
has failed to quell the protests and done much to stoke public
outrage, the situation seems increasingly untenable. Joseph Cheng, retired political science professor at
the City University of Hong Kong , told the Guardian
that the election was “a slap on the cheek for Carrie Lam’s
administration who insisted that the silent majority [of Hong
Kongers] was supporting the government.” He added that there may
not be any path to “normality” under Lam’s watch in Hong Kong.
The protesters
have vowed to continue their demonstrations and actions until their
demands are met. My colleagues laid out the tricky
way ahead: “With this rebuke of its affiliates in the city,
Beijing faces a tough choice: whether to open up politics as
promised in Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, extend a crackdown on
the pro-democracy protesters by the city’s police force and
government, or try to navigate a delicate middle path.”
Many in Hong
Kong hope for moderation and conciliation. “It is up to Beijing to
make use of the carrots and sticks it has in shaping the city’s
development ,” noted an editorial in
the South China Morning Post. “But an approach that reflects
majority wishes will go a long way in winning support and fostering stability and prosperity.”
But there’s
little indication that Beijing is at all interested in indulging
Hong Kong’s majority. Chinese state
media cast the elections as the product of foreign interference and
misinformation. For President Xi Jinping, Hong Kong’s elections underscored a grim
week of headlines, capped by new revelations about China’s vast
system of repression in the far western region of Xinjiang. Though
Xi may be straining under internal pressures, few analysts believe
Beijing will countenance a full capitulation from Lam’s government.
“Trapped in an echo chamber of its own
making, Beijing has, at every juncture, doubled down on its
hardline rhetoric that the protesters represent an independence movement committing
acts of terrorism, with the support of overseas governments and
Western media,” wrote Quartz’s Isabella Steger.
“While the strategy played well to a nationalism-fueled domestic
audience, especially as protests escalated in violence over months, in practice it leaves little room for the party to climb down, and
find new and flexible ways of engaging with the genuine demands of
the movement which include greater democratic representation and an
investigation into police brutality.”
As an opaque
political system struggles to reckon with a democratic uprising,
the specter of greater violence still looms. “Whether it is just a
continued tone-deaf response, whether it is harsher crackdowns,
[Beijing seems] singularly unable to make any adjustments to their
game plan,” Christopher Balding, an American academic formerly
based in China, told my colleague
Anna Fifield.