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Don’t Talk to Kim Unless Nukes Are On the Table
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In the midst of an
“Olympic” charm offensive, North Korea has extended an invitation for South Korea’s
President Moon Jae-in to visit Pyongyang and meet leader Kim Jong-un.
It would be the
first time a South Korean president has visited the North’s capital city
since 2007, but many in Washington are wary: negotiations
without North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs on the table
may be fruitless in resolving conflict on the peninsula…or worse, could
lead to further disagreement between Seoul and Washington.
Ambassador Joseph
DeTrani, former U.S. Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North
Korea,
shared his thoughts with The Cipher Brief:
- “The
invitation of President Moon Jae-In to the North for a summit with
Kim Jung Un shouldn't be too surprising…If President Moon eventually
visits North Korea, in addition to humanitarian issues, like
reuniting separated families, the denuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula should be discussed.”
- “If
a summit materializes and denuclearization is discussed and North
Korea is amenable to resuming meetings with the U.S. and others,
then the invitation of North Korea to the Winter Olympics would have
been a success.”
- “Joint
military exercises and sanction implementation should continue as
scheduled, if North Korea continues to refuse any discussion dealing
with the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
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Forged by Tehran: Two Navies, Ready to Challenge the West
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Photo:
John Moore/Getty
Iran’s overt
military activity, in addition to its covert support of proxy groups,
presents a threat to U.S. geostrategic interests. Tehran’s military
doctrine seeks to deter a conventionally superior foe (the United States)
from entering its territorial waters or borders through the threat of
asymmetric retaliation.
- Tehran’s
naval doctrine of deterrence and area denial along strategic waterways
such as the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway for some 30 percent of the
world’s oil supply, is of particular concern. The actors primarily
responsible are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy, and to
a lesser extent, Iran’s regular navy.
- Despite
Iran’s naval posture remaining defensive in nature, there is ample
room for miscommunication or escalation during interactions between
the U.S. Navy and Iranian forces, particularly the IRGCN, which are
known to harass U.S. vessels.
Read the full brief,
with expert commentary by:
- Admiral (ret.) Jonathan Greenert,
former U.S. Chief of Naval Operations
- Rear Admiral (ret.)
Paul Becker, former Director of Intelligence, U.S. Naval Forces Central
Command
- Michael Connell,
Principal Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses
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Staying Competitive in a Crowded Open
Source World
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The open-source
intelligence space is getting more crowded due to
technological advancements that have democratized access to information
and disrupted countless industries.
Carmen Landa
Middleton, former director of the CIA’s Open Source
Center, offers three simple strategies for organizations that produce
open-source intelligence assessments to remain a competitive advantage:
- Maintain
Scale:
“Global coverage
of the less important areas of the world is constantly under threat,
as managers contend with the resource tradeoffs necessitated by
limited budgets and the demands of the highest priority targets.”
- Invest
in Tools and Strategies: “Technological
solutions to address the information challenges posed not only by
the speed and volume of data, but also the authenticity of that
data, are being developed at a head-spinning pace.”
- Leverage
the Competition’s Strengths: “Considering
what current work might be better provided by outside competition in
order to focus on the most important and urgent intelligence
questions would be wise, as the competition is here to stay.”
Read Middleton’s column
on how open-source intelligence gathering is rapidly evolving – and how
intel professionals should react.
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