Today's Insight
Do Japan and South Korea Need Nuclear Weapons? | Fritz Lodge, The Cipher Brief
For both Tokyo and Seoul, the nuclear threat posed by North Korea is undeniable, yet neither Japan nor South Korea – rich and technologically capable developed countries – possesses their own nuclear deterrent against Pyongyang or the long term threat posed by rising Chinese military power in the region.
Expert Commentary
Seoul Searches for Options as North Korean Missiles Fly | Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, Former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
"It goes without saying that acquisition of a nuclear capability on the part of the South Koreans would be received with alarm by every player in the region, both friendly and hostile. The two greatest risks are that it would spark a regional arms race, or worse, provoke a destabilizing reaction from North Korea."
Tokyo Weighs Risks and Rewards of Atoms for War | Thomas Cynkin, Vice President, Daniel Morgan Graduate School
Japan has the means, motive, and opportunity to produce nuclear weapons. However, as a matter of long-standing policy, Tokyo has kept its options open, as long as it can rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
|
|
Today's Column: Strategic View
How Deterrence Fundamentals Function in Cyberspace | James Van De Velde, Adjunct Faculty Member, Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins University, National Intelligence University
Until the United States demonstrates the willingness to use cyber or other capabilities to punish unacceptable behavior in cyberspace, threats of punishment alone will continue to ring hollow, and defense alone will be insufficient.
|
|
Must Read On The Cipher Brief
Dead Drop: October 6 | Anonymous
TROLLING THE SPOOKS: The CIA recently took to twitter to try to recruit Russian speakers posting the question (in Russian), “Do you know what you can do as a CIA linguist?” And answering, “unveil the truth.” The Russian Foreign Ministry responded (in both English and Russian) on Monday saying, “CIA thanks for support & promotion of Russian language. Why have U been hiding it? We are ready to assist with experts & recommendations.”
Pakistan, U.S. Continue Blame Game over Terror | Kim Dozier, Executive Editor, The Cipher Brief
Pakistan’s foreign minister says the Trump administration is blaming Islamabad for America’s own failure to rout out terrorism in the region.
“We are not saying we are saints...but since the last 3 or 4 years, we are whole-heartedly single-mindedly targeting these terrorists.”
Kaspersky Software Suspected in Theft of NSA Data | Levi Maxey, Cyber and Technology Analyst, The Cipher Brief
While the concern is that Kaspersky is directly cooperating with Russian intelligence, there is also the possibility that Russian intelligence has hacked the products of an unwitting Kaspersky to essentially piggyback off their privileged access for espionage purposes. |
|
The Cipher Brief Podcasts
The Cipher Brief Daily Podcast
Get a daily rundown of the top security stories and previews of the exclusive content available on The Cipher Brief.
Listen now - on iTunes or on our website
Intelligence Matters: Tom Donilon
In this week’s episode of Intelligence Matters, former acting Director of the CIA Michael Morell speaks with former National Security Advisor Tom Donilon about his distinguished career in government: working as a top security advisory in the White House, his thoughts on U.S. President Barack Obama and his advice for the current administration on the most pressing security concerns of our time. As he looks back on his career, Donilon describes an unlikely route to national security and foreign policy.
Listen to Intelligence Matters with Tom Donilon - or get it on iTunes.
15 Minutes: Congressman Will Hurd
The Cipher Brief’s Bennett Seftel spent 15 Minutes with U.S. Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX), who talks takeaways from his years working as a CIA operations officer and offers his thoughts on current issues: why a border wall with Mexico is the most expensive and least effective way to achieve border security, the North Korea crisis, and the adversarial U.S.-Russia relationship.
Listen to 15 Minutes with Congressman Will Hurd: Discussing Security Threats & Border Control - or get it on iTunes
|
|
The Cipher Take
Saudi King Salman Visits Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Adbdulaziz al Saud, in Moscow on Thursday in the first ever visit by a sitting Saudi monarch to Russia. According to Russian news reports, the meetings have already produced a $2.2 billion arms agreement – Riyadh will purchase S-400 air missile defense systems – as well as memoranda of understanding on several billion dollars of new Saudi investment in Russia. Oil prices rose by two percent on the expectation of more cooperation on production cuts between the two giant producers.
The Cipher Take:
Many will see this trip as a sign that Saudi Arabia is slipping away from the United States and embracing Russia as the new preeminent extra-regional power in the region. That is probably not the case. Moscow does exert deep influence in Syria, could serve as a useful intermediary with Iran, and its cooperation is critical for OPEC’s oil production management agreements, but Saudi Arabia’s ties to Washington – and the Trump Administration – remain deep. Riyadh’s arms agreement with Russia is unusual – Saudi Arabia usually gets its weapons from the U.S. – but it may be intended more as a signal to Washington that it needs to speed up the planned military sales currently held up in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee rather than a true shift in strategy. On bigger issues like Syria, the two leaders are unlikely to come to any major agreement in these talks, while Riyadh’s economic investments in Russia have a history of coming up short – of the $10 billion in investment Saudi promised to Russia in 2015, only $1 billion has actually come to fruition. The bigger takeaway here is that King Salman and his powerful son, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, are trying to shake up multiple aspects of Saudi Arabia’s economy, society, and foreign policy. Apparently, that includes unprecedented talks with a historic rival.
|
|
The Cipher Brief is hiring.
Do you love reading The Cipher Brief as much as we love creating it? Help us reach out to players in the security space with shared goals and values.
Featured Job: Advertising Sales Representative
If you are an Account Executive with a passion for National Security Media, and are innovative with a talent for consultative sales and achieving growth, then we want to speak with you. Find out more
|
|
|
Ambassador Joseph R. DeTrani
Former Director, National Counterproliferation Center
__________________
"The in-depth analysis the Cipher Brief provides, an all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgeable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. It’s a must read for anyone interested in world affairs."
|
|
|
