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Best Of: Russia & Iran’s Temporary Marriage
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Photo:
Getty Images
As the United
States prepares to exit the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA,
and restore sanctions on the nation, The Cipher Brief revisits the
relationship between Iran and Russia, which continue to develop deep ties
that run counter to U.S. interests. How will Washington’s actions impact
how Tehran and Moscow view their overlapping interests?
Russia and Iran
have forged a strategic symbiotic relationship anchored
in economic, defense and energy cooperation. And as the Trump
administration ramps up both rhetoric and sanctions on key figures and
entities linked to the Iranian regime, and threatens to impose more –
Washington could end up pushing Moscow and Tehran even closer together.
- A
common mission unites Moscow and Tehran, whose worldviews are
shaped by the same lens. Both countries aim to thwart the expansion
of western democratic systems and raise their levels of influence at
the regional and global levels at the expense of the U.S.
- The
U.S. could aim to drive a wedge between the two nations, thereby limiting their
joint adventurism in the Middle East. However, such tactics would
require Washington to engage directly with Tehran, while excluding
Moscow, something the current administration has not demonstrated a
willingness to do.
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South Korea Has Reassessed the Value of its American
Alliance
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Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former senior
British diplomat, says South Korea's aggressive diplomacy with North Korea
is indicative of a strategic shift in the country's foreign policy - and
its relationship with the United States.
- "Earlier
in the present crisis, before the Winter Olympics, it seemed likely to South
Korean President Moon Jae-in’s government that the United States was
on the brink of launching a pre-emptive military strike against the
North. It was Seoul’s conviction that this would be disastrous,
combined with a sense of powerlessness at their evident lack of a
veto against US action, which led Moon to reactivate the dormant
back-channel with Pyongyang."
- "The
world has fundamentally changed since the days of the Sunshine
Policy.
China is now a superpower and is the primary power in North East
Asia. Whatever solution to the Korean imbroglio is found it must be,
in Seoul’s calculation, acceptable to Beijing. Good relations with
China are now seen as an essential plank of South Korean foreign
policy.
- "Whilst
South Korea would prefer for the North to denuclearize, it can
nonetheless live with a nuclear North Korea. It has already done so for
12 years and has no serious concern that Pyongyang would use a
nuclear weapon against fellow Koreans in the South. For Seoul, the
much bigger fear is of an American strike against North Korea which
ends up with Seoul being targeted by North Korean artillery and
covert attacks mounted against southern infrastructure."
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Your Weekly Intelligence Gossip
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It's Friday...and time for your weekly intel gossip! We've put together
the best bits from Haspel's hearing and other bizarre news stories, for
your reading pleasure.
Here's a snippet:
- GENERAL
STEVE? BuzzFeed has
a story that looks like it is something out of the satirical
website “The Onion” – but apparently not. The site says
Stephen Toumajan was in the U.S. Army and rose to the rank of
lieutenant colonel but he has since taken his act on the road, and
now functions as a major general in the United Arab Emirates
military. A UAE government website refers to him as “H.E,
Major General Staff Pilot Stephen A. Toumajan.” Yet according
to BuzzFeed, “His Excellency” has said in court filings that he IS a
major general in the UAE – but confusingly is “not currently in
their armed forces.”
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