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American political scientist Francis Fukuyama became an overnight star when,
in a 1989 magazine article, he claimed that liberal capitalist democracy had
not just triumphed over communism, but marked the last ideological stage
in human history.
in a 1989 magazine article, he claimed that liberal capitalist democracy had
not just triumphed over communism, but marked the last ideological stage
in human history.
Speaking to Nikolaos Gavalakis, Fukuyama explains why he believes his broad theory still
holds despite the ascendency of populist parties and ‘illiberal democrats’ such as
Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
holds despite the ascendency of populist parties and ‘illiberal democrats’ such as
Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In your book ‘The End of History’ you proclaimed the victory of liberal democracy.
But now, over 25 years later, liberal democracy seems to be on the retreat.
Is the age of liberalism over?
But now, over 25 years later, liberal democracy seems to be on the retreat.
Is the age of liberalism over?
I did not say that democracy was victorious everywhere. The question of
The End of History’
is about the direction history will take. Its ‘End’ is not meant in the sense of termination,
but of objective.
The End of History’
is about the direction history will take. Its ‘End’ is not meant in the sense of termination,
but of objective.
For 150 years, Marxists said the end of history is communism and that we’re evolving
in this direction. I said, no, if we’re evolving anywhere, it’s towards liberal
democracy tied to a market economy, and I still believe that’s right.
in this direction. I said, no, if we’re evolving anywhere, it’s towards liberal
democracy tied to a market economy, and I still believe that’s right.
I think it’s extremely premature to declare that project to be somehow over.
If you look around the world then, yes, you have these new populist countries
like Hungary and Poland, but that’s not the dominant trend.
Of course, it’s definitely worrisome because there’s that pushback against
globalisation and elites.
But it’s not at all clear that the end of history is Hungarian illiberal democracy
or that Putin’s model will become a universal model that people will follow.
If you look around the world then, yes, you have these new populist countries
like Hungary and Poland, but that’s not the dominant trend.
Of course, it’s definitely worrisome because there’s that pushback against
globalisation and elites.
But it’s not at all clear that the end of history is Hungarian illiberal democracy
or that Putin’s model will become a universal model that people will follow.
I think liberal democracy is still the best form of government for a lot of reasons;
it’s the most sustainable model and I think that it’s likely to correct itself.
it’s the most sustainable model and I think that it’s likely to correct itself.
What about China? Their authoritarian model is going great guns.
Yes, but you can’t judge the success of a particular regime type in the short run.
The question is: How can China succeed over a longer period of time?
There are a lot of reasons for thinking China’s economic and political model
may not be that sustainable.
The question is: How can China succeed over a longer period of time?
There are a lot of reasons for thinking China’s economic and political model
may not be that sustainable.
One of the bigger advantages they had in the past is that they were a more
institutionalised form of authoritarian government. Their communist party had a
lot of institutional rules like term limits and mandatory retirement ages.
institutionalised form of authoritarian government. Their communist party had a
lot of institutional rules like term limits and mandatory retirement ages.
Recently, President Xi Jinping has been dismantling that.
In a way, he’s pushing China in the direction of being more like an African dictatorship.
I think there are some real questions as to how long this thing will survive.
In a way, he’s pushing China in the direction of being more like an African dictatorship.
I think there are some real questions as to how long this thing will survive.
In contrast to populism, social democracy’s facing historic decline.
Working class voters and public sector workers who used to vote
for traditional left-wing
parties are now turning to the extremes. What’s caused this shift?
Working class voters and public sector workers who used to vote
for traditional left-wing
parties are now turning to the extremes. What’s caused this shift?
There are economic, political and cultural reasons for this problem.
The economic reason has to do with the fact that, basically, the benefits from
globalisation have been heavily concentrated among well educated people
living in big cities.
The political drivers are based on the fact that many democracies have been
insufficiently responsive in addressing these problems. A lot of elites look like they
are out of touch and
not aware of what citizens are feeling.
globalisation have been heavily concentrated among well educated people
living in big cities.
The political drivers are based on the fact that many democracies have been
insufficiently responsive in addressing these problems. A lot of elites look like they
are out of touch and
not aware of what citizens are feeling.
But the most important reason is the cultural one which is related to immigration.
In Europe, a big part of the issue was triggered by the migrant crisis.
A lot of countries feared losing control over their own cultural identity due to
the threat of high levels of migration. Europeans must respond to some of these underlying
fears. In all three of these areas, there are things you can do to take care of people that are
not doing that well economically. Adjustments could be made in migration policy.
However, there’s also a moral issue where people just have to be more willing to defend
liberal democracy as the best form of government.
In Europe, a big part of the issue was triggered by the migrant crisis.
A lot of countries feared losing control over their own cultural identity due to
the threat of high levels of migration. Europeans must respond to some of these underlying
fears. In all three of these areas, there are things you can do to take care of people that are
not doing that well economically. Adjustments could be made in migration policy.
However, there’s also a moral issue where people just have to be more willing to defend
liberal democracy as the best form of government.
Many would argue that adopting stricter immigration policies would mean doing
exactly what right-wing populists want.
exactly what right-wing populists want.
That’s not a reason for not doing it. I think what Chancellor Merkel did during
the migrant crisis – her motives for that – were very laudable. Given Germany’s history,
a liberal policy towards refugees was very understandable.
the migrant crisis – her motives for that – were very laudable. Given Germany’s history,
a liberal policy towards refugees was very understandable.
However, it also created a huge practical problem because Germany does not have
a history of being very accommodating with foreigners and there are just
some realistic limits to how much tolerance Germans have for that. So I think
slowing the rate down was a reasonable response even if it is what the right-wing parties wanted.
a history of being very accommodating with foreigners and there are just
some realistic limits to how much tolerance Germans have for that. So I think
slowing the rate down was a reasonable response even if it is what the right-wing parties wanted.
We are currently sitting in Kyiv, Ukraine, a place which probably represents better
than any other the current struggle between Russia and the West. Do you see any way out
of this spiral of mutual escalation?
than any other the current struggle between Russia and the West. Do you see any way out
of this spiral of mutual escalation?
I would place far more blame on Russia and Putin for this crisis than on the West.
Most Western countries have been open to cooperation with Russia. It’s the Russians who
invaded Crimea and the Donbas, and they even poisoned their former agent, Sergei Skripal,
on British soil. Without Russia changing its behaviour, it’s hard to see how the relationship
can get better.
invaded Crimea and the Donbas, and they even poisoned their former agent, Sergei Skripal,
on British soil. Without Russia changing its behaviour, it’s hard to see how the relationship
can get better.
Russia did well economically after Putin first became president 18 years ago,
but real incomes have been declining for a few years now. Why’s he still so popular
with the Russian people?
but real incomes have been declining for a few years now. Why’s he still so popular
with the Russian people?
He he’s legitimating himself by promoting a certain kind of Russian nationalism.
This started in the 2000s when he could argue that he’s the one who saved Russia from
the chaos of the 1990s and the Yeltsin years. He built Russian pride and, since he can contro
l the media, he’s put out a narrative blaming everything bad that’s happened over the last
few years on foreigners and on opposition from the West – even though his own
policies are actually to blame.
This started in the 2000s when he could argue that he’s the one who saved Russia from
the chaos of the 1990s and the Yeltsin years. He built Russian pride and, since he can contro
l the media, he’s put out a narrative blaming everything bad that’s happened over the last
few years on foreigners and on opposition from the West – even though his own
policies are actually to blame.
Isn’t the West at least partly to blame? Surely the expansion of
NATO and the EU has irritated ordinary Russians?
NATO and the EU has irritated ordinary Russians?
Concerning the expansion of NATO, we will never know the answer to that.
A lot of Eastern European countries which wanted to get into NATO would say
that Russia has this long history of imperialism, and even if they had stayed
outside of NATO, Russia still would have gotten to a point where they wanted
to dominate their neighbours. When that happens, of course, it is better to be inside
NATO than to be outside.
that Russia has this long history of imperialism, and even if they had stayed
outside of NATO, Russia still would have gotten to a point where they wanted
to dominate their neighbours. When that happens, of course, it is better to be inside
NATO than to be outside.
You cannot prove either one of those assertions, but I’m inclined
to believe these countries are entitled to get in, and even if we had not
expanded NATO that Russia would have ended up in the same place that it is now.
to believe these countries are entitled to get in, and even if we had not
expanded NATO that Russia would have ended up in the same place that it is now.
The European Union is in deep crisis. It’s facing challenges to its values on the inside
from Viktor Orban in Hungary, and from Poland too, and it’s also still dealing with the
economic and migration crises. What does the EU need to do to get back on track?
from Viktor Orban in Hungary, and from Poland too, and it’s also still dealing with the
economic and migration crises. What does the EU need to do to get back on track?
There are two big drivers of the crisis in the EU. The first was the Euro
and that still hasn’t been fixed. In order to fix it, you either have to
go backwards or forwards. You either go forwards to a fiscal union or you’ve
got to somehow undo the Euro.
and that still hasn’t been fixed. In order to fix it, you either have to
go backwards or forwards. You either go forwards to a fiscal union or you’ve
got to somehow undo the Euro.
Right now, I don’t think either of those options is very feasible. The other thing
has to do with migration. People don’t like to hear that because Viktor Orban is saying
the same thing, but I think in this particular case he’s right.
has to do with migration. People don’t like to hear that because Viktor Orban is saying
the same thing, but I think in this particular case he’s right.
You can’t have something like the Schengen system if the EU doesn’t have
secure outer borders, and it doesn’t right now. So, we still have this big inflow of people
through Greece and Italy and it’s creating lots of tensions in both of those countries.
It is driving populism, too. Europe really needs to fix that particular problem.
secure outer borders, and it doesn’t right now. So, we still have this big inflow of people
through Greece and Italy and it’s creating lots of tensions in both of those countries.
It is driving populism, too. Europe really needs to fix that particular problem.
What role should Germany play here?
If I were the German Chancellor, I would be giving lots of support to Greece
and Italy to help them solve this problem. They’ve tried doing that by basically
bribing Turkey to keep as many migrants from coming in the first time, but there
are lots of other sources of migration – a lot of people are coming from Africa and
other places.
I don’t think the solution to Africa’s problem is open immigration into Europe.
I think it will do more to destabilise Europe than it will to help Africa.
and Italy to help them solve this problem. They’ve tried doing that by basically
bribing Turkey to keep as many migrants from coming in the first time, but there
are lots of other sources of migration – a lot of people are coming from Africa and
other places.
I don’t think the solution to Africa’s problem is open immigration into Europe.
I think it will do more to destabilise Europe than it will to help Africa.
