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WEEKEND EDITION
The Cipher Brief is
a nonpartisan, expert-driven, trusted national security information
source.
THIS WEEK'S
MEMBERS ONLY BRIEFINGS
Tuesday, June 16th
at 1:30p ET -- The Cipher Brief talks with Cipher Brief Expert
and former Associate Deputy Director of CIA for Digital
Innovation Sean Roche about
why - considering all of the things that have kept him up at night
(Russian nukes, loose nukes, terrorism, cyber) - the increasingly
vital, yet vulnerable US electric grid is the most
concerning.
Wednesday, June 17th
at 1:30p ET -- Bringing Words to a Gun Fight: The Gulf Rift’s
Raging Influence Battle. The Cipher Brief talks with Kirsten Fontenrose, Director of
the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic
Council about the rift between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and
Bahrain on one side and Qatar on the other and how it has become almost
normalized in international foreign policy. We'll discuss the
tactics being used by both sides to spread falsehoods and about the risks
to US interests this unseen war poses.*
*This session is
proudly sponsored by Mission Solutions Group, EKS, Gates Defense Systems
and The SPY Museum.
HERE'S A LOOK
AT THE EXPERT-DRIVEN NATIONAL SECURITY CONTENT YOU MAY HAVE MISSED
LAST WEEK --
WE’VE SEEN THE
FUTURE AND IT'S FULL OF FAKES -- It's not enough to understand
what threats are emerging if we don't have strategies to mitigate them
and if technology to protect individuals, businesses and governments
doesn't keep pace with adversaries.
DeepFakes - images and
video or audio that have been altered to appear real but
are not - are a problem for two big reasons: 1) people tend to
believe what they see and hear 2) deepfakes are getting easier
to make.
Robert Griffin,
Managing Partner for DVI Equity Partners writes that:
- "Various
studies have been conducted, and the unfortunate truth of the matter
is that “false content propagates at a faster rate than valid
content,” and false visual media propagates the fastest. People tend
to believe what their eyes see and their ears hear more
unconditionally than what they read. Given the acceleration and
adoption of AI/ML technology, one of the largest and most emerging
risks to the IW defense is the advancement of DeepFakes."
XI'S AWFUL
ARITHMETIC -- Cipher
Brief Expert and former Deputy Director for Counterintelligence at CIA, Mark
Kelton writes in The Cipher Brief that:
- "There
has been much use of the language of war in discussion of our
struggle against the coronavirus. But our enemy is not the
virus. The disease, remorseless in its ubiquity, is
neutral. Our fight against it is the most public and deadly
battle in what has already been a long, and heretofore largely
unnoticed or unrecognized, conflict with the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) and its leadership."
THE CRITICAL
IMPORTANCE OF BALANCE IN THE MILITARY -- General Joseph Votel, retired four-star general
former CENTCOM Commander writes that:
- Today,
American institutions are front and center as we simultaneously
confront the triple threat of an active pandemic, civil unrest
spurred by racial injustice, and an economic crisis. Resolving these
crises will require a coordinated effort from all our democratic
institutions: the three branches of our federal government, our
state governments, our military, our press, our business
communities, and academia. Although the military is an entity within
the executive branch, its place within our constitutional order
requires special consideration and respect to secure the intentions
of our nation’s forefathers.
WILL MORE
SENATE HEARINGS ACTUALLY PRODUCE ANYTHING NEW -- In his Fine Print column, Senior
National Security Columnist Walter Pincus examines
whether Senator Lindsey Graham's new panel will cover anything that
hasn't been covered already.
Read this
week's Fine Print from Senior National Security
Columnist Walter Pincus exclusively in The Cipher Brief
KEEPING RECENT
CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS IN PERSPECTIVE -- Cipher Brief Expert, Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, writes that efforts in Hong
Kong come at a time when "China is moving aggressively in the
South China Sea, with the establishment of two new administrative
districts in contested areas and the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing
vessel; its brinksmanship in the Himalayas with Chinese troops crossing
into Indian-controlled territory of Ladakh and the spate of
disinformation about Covid-19 originating in the U.S."
- "It
appears that the hawks in China are proponents of these and other
decisions that have put China on a collision course with the
U.S. Indeed, China’s recent reported decision to temporarily
halt purchases of U.S. products, including soybeans and pork, puts
into question the viability of the recently negotiated trade
agreement with China."
PLEASE TAKE YOUR
KNEE OFF OUR NECKS -- Cipher Brief Expert, Lieutenant General
Vincent Stewart (Ret.) (Vince) is the Founder and CEO of Stewart
Global Solutions, LLC, an international consulting organization. He
retired from the U.S. Marine Corps after more than 38 years of active
commissioned service to the nation.
He's also a black man,
who writes a deeply personal take on what the death of George Floyd means
to him and the personal experiences he has had coming in direct contact
with racist behavior in the US.
His personal story
includes a word that is widely seen as deeply hurtful and offensive
to many, yet is also an important part of his personal experience.
Read Take your Knee off our
Necks so we can Breathe in The Cipher Brief
WE LEARNED SOME
THINGS FROM COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM THAT CAN HELP IN THE FIGHT
AGAINST COVID-19 -- Cipher Brief Expert Farah Pandith and Jacob
Ware write in The Cipher Brief:
- "As
with 19 years ago, New York City once again finds itself at the
epicenter of a devastating global catastrophe. As the coronavirus
continues to take lives, crush the economy, and increase fear of the
unknown, it is reminiscent of another pervasive and enduring threat:
violent extremism. Like our fight against hate, COVID-19 introduced
itself with a devastating initial attack on our public and
institutions, and is likely to remain a threat, returning in waves
for the foreseeable future. The lessons from a disjointed global
fight against violent extremist ideology (countering violent
extremism, or CVE) are important today because their application
will allow us to succeed where we have failed in fighting
hate."
FROM TIANANMEN TO
HONG KONG -- CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT TAKE -- Cipher Brief Expert and
former Deputy Executive Director of CIA Martin Petersen was
CIA's Deputy Director of the Office of East Asia Analysis in 1989, during
the Chinese crackdown in Tiananmen Square. He writes exclusively
for The Cipher Brief that:
- The
Chinese leadership’s handling of Tiananmen and the aftermath can
give us some idea of what to expect if, as seems likely, the regime
fully implements the new security law the NPC just passed. The
situations are similar in key aspects, but differ in important ways.
THE DEAD DROP
You know how this
works. Members
can pick up the latest interesting collection of national security
gossip and interesting tidbits here.
And that was just
last week. What will you miss next week by not becoming a Cipher
Brief member for just $10/month for an annual subscription?
What are
members are saying about The Cipher Brief:
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regret is that I wasted too much time with my “should I or shouldn’t I
subscribe” analysis. The value of your Security Brief events and the
reading I have enjoyed on your site is far beyond my expectations and
greatly exceeds the cost of my subscription."
- Cipher Brief
Member Dean Richards
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