A man passes a wall in Hanoi marking the 45th
anniversary of the fall of Saigon. (Nhac Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images)
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The United States passed a tragic milestone this week in its novel coronavirus
outbreak. Less than three months after the first case was confirmed on
U.S. soil, more lives have now been lost in the United States from the
pandemic than the 58,220 Americans who died over nearly two decades of
fighting during the Vietnam War.
Coincidentally, the fall of Saigon 45 years ago this Thursday ended that conflict. But despite
these milestones, in Vietnam many are focused on a very different marker:
According to official figures, the country has recorded no new cases of
domestic transmission of coronavirus in almost two weeks.
Despite its border with China, relatively low income, and population of
95 million, Vietnam is an outlier success story in the pandemic. It has 270
confirmed cases of the virus and no deaths. The country is beginning to
lift the strict lockdown measures it began imposing in February, reopening
restaurants and barber shops last week.
Vietnam has “basically put the pandemic under control,” Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said Tuesday. But this
effective control has yet to be greeted with the global plaudits that many
other nations have received, perhaps because Vietnam does not fit neatly
with other success stories.
This is not a country known for its technology, like South Korea and
Taiwan, and it is not a small, easily controllable space like Hong Kong or
Iceland. It doesn’t have the charismatic leadership of New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, Germany’s Angela Merkel or
other female world leaders.
And it’s not liberal or democratic like other widely praised nations.
Forty-five years after the war’s end, Vietnam remains a developing
Communist nation, led by a coterie of middle-aged men.
So what explains Vietnam’s coronavirus success? Robyn
Klingler-Vidra from King’s College London and Ba-Linh Tran of the
University of Bath have identified three key tactics used widely by the
government: temperature screening and testing, targeted lockdowns and
constant communication.
Plenty of countries test, of course, and Vietnam’s raw number of tests
administered is far less than many other nations: The United States has
conducted more than 5 million tests, whereas Vietnam has conducted only
200,000. However, when you consider tests per confirmed case, Vietnam is an
outlier.
Vietnam began testing early, ramping up domestic production of tests
after the first cases of the coronavirus in the country were discovered in
three travelers returning from Wuhan in January. It then undertook
extensive contact tracing, with strict quarantine at government-run
facilities for those suspected of having the virus.
The government has used text messaging and apps to communicate with
citizens during the crisis, and the government publishes extensive amounts
of data and information about the outbreak on the Health Ministry’s website, a surprising move in a country
known for its extensive restrictions on media freedom.
Questions remain about whether data from an autocratic nation such as
Vietnam is reliable, or if the lower level of tests overall mean there are
missing cases, but some U.S. health experts have said they trust the figures. Vietnam was also hit by severe acute
respiratory syndrome in 2003, but became internationally praised for being the first country to
stop local transmission.
It’s possible that being an authoritarian state helped it understand the
early days of the outbreak. Trien Vinh Le and Huy Quynh Nguyen of the
University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City argue in the Diplomat that
Vietnam effectively learned from the mistakes of China’s
too-secretive response to the outbreak.
Cybersecurity firm FireEye also claims that hackers linked to the
Vietnamese government tried to access emails of China’s Ministry of
Emergency Management and the government of Wuhan — an accusation that
Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry denies.
Memories of the war linger in Vietnam and in the United States. Nguyen
has compared Vietnam’s coronavirus fight to the “spring
general offensive of 2020” — what veteran Vietnam watcher George Black calls an “obvious echo” of
the Tet Offensive against the United States and its Vietnamese allies in
1968.
But the countries are no longer enemies; they normalized relations in
1995 and polls show that the United States is viewed favorably in Vietnam. If Vietnam is able to avoid a more
destructive second wave of infections — no easy feat, to be sure — the
country will probably grow closer to America.
In early April, President Trump thanked “our friends in Vietnam” for
450,000 made-in-Vietnam DuPont hazmat suits, part of a global wave of coronavirus diplomacy. Businesses were
already moving to Vietnam to offset their reliance on China, a move the
country hopes could be extended into an economic rebound.
The United States may want to turn to its old foe for advice, though it
may not like what it hears: Vietnam’s success is largely linked to key
decisions in the early part of this year, a period in which the United
States was still in its phase of “magical thinking.”
That’s not time that the United States can get back, but the fight isn’t
over for anyone. “We should not forget that we have only won individual
battles, not the whole war,” Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam
said last week.
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Talking Points
• For people who
suffer the most severe reactions to the novel coronavirus — and their caregivers — the
second week of the disease can become a time of sudden peril and
heightened concern, when some of those who seem stable or mending can
suddenly become critically ill. There is little consensus among doctors and
experts about why the fifth through 10th days, or thereabouts, seem to be
so dangerous for some people with covid-19, the disease caused by the
virus. But everyone from critical care specialists to EMTs is aware of this
frightening aspect of the disease. The Post’s Lenny Bernstein and Ariana Eunjung Cha have
more.
• Where is North
Korea’s Kim Jong Un? Post Tokyo bureau chief Simon Denyer turns to the satellites for clues:
“New satellite images of luxury boats owned by the North Korean leader have
been spotted at his villa in the coastal resort of Wonsan, providing more
evidence that Kim is probably holed up by the beach, according to
NK Pro, a specialist news and analysis service based in Seoul,”
he writes. The images show rumors swirling about Kim’s death may be
premature, but they certainly don’t confirm he is fit and well.
• A country that
cherishes disrespect for authority has shown remarkable enthusiasm for a government
tool designed to stop the novel coronavirus from spreading by monitoring millions of Australians through their
cellphones. Health officials said they had hoped 1
million people would download the app in the first five days. It took 24
hours. |
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