Today's Insight
The Price of
Turkish Posturing in Iraq | Fritz Lodge, The Cipher Brief
Over the past month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi
Prime Minister Haider al Abadi have engaged in a swiftly escalating war
of words over the presence of Turkish troops at the Bashiqa airbase in
northern Iraq.
Expert Commentary
Erdogan and Abadi: Making a Mess | Aaron Stein, Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic
Council
It is an odd irony that Turkey is working to blunt Iranian influence in
Iraq, yet the rhetoric that Erdogan uses ends up bolstering Iraqi
officials linked to Iran. Erdogan has a domestic political incentive to
“talk tough,” but his domestic considerations are undermining Turkish
foreign policy.
Ankara's Influence: Asset or a Liability? | Aykan Erdemir, Senior Fellow, Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies
The Turkish public is sensitive about the status of Mosul, both because
the city was perceived to be part of the Turkish “homeland” until 1926
and because of the precarious status of its Turkmen population. Knowing
this, Erdogan has lately been fanning the flames of jingoism and
irredentism to unite nationalist voters behind his dream of a
centralized presidential system.
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The Cipher
Brief Podcast: "15 Minutes"
Check out our new weekly interview podcast - 15 Minutes - to
hear from the biggest names and brightest minds in the global
security space.
Listen now to 15 Minutes
with our first guest, former Undersecretary of Defense for
Intelligence and Green Beret Michael Vickers.
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Don't Miss On The Cipher Brief
Dead Drop: November 4 | Anonymous
JCS
CHIEF-STAKES: Among the interesting emails stolen
from Clinton campaign chief John Podesta’s gmail account and released
to the world by WikiLeaks is this one. National Security Council
official Christopher Kirchhoff wrote to Podesta on March 30, 2015
updating him on the pros and cons of four main candidates to become
chairman of the JCS. The players included then-Vice Chairman
Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, USMC Commandant Joseph Dunford, Chief of Staff
of the Air Force Mark Welsh, and PACOM Commander Admiral Sam Locklear.
Kirchhoff describes Dunford (the eventual winner) as being viewed as
“weak on strategic thinking” and Winnefeld as “often too abrasive to
military and civilian leaders.”
Malaysia Pivots to China, but U.S.
Counterterrorism Ties Stay Strong | Mackenzie
Weinger, The Cipher Brief
As Beijing and Washington continue to make their plays for influence in
the region, Malaysia’s turn to China throws another damper on President
Barack Obama’s stated pivot to Asia. But in the counterterrorism realm,
the United States and Malaysia are working to maintain their close ties
and relationship, a number of observers recently told The Cipher Brief.
The World is Watching: The American Election and
Saudi Arabia | Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief
As the Saudis have demonstrated, new leadership can bring abut
unanticipated changes. When King Salman Bin Abdulaziz
ascended to the throne in January 2015, he quickly reorganized the
country’s succession order and approved a more active foreign policy approach
we are seeing today. Likewise, will new U.S. leadership introduce
unforeseen changes in U.S.-Saudi dynamics?
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The Cipher Take
Two U.S. Service Members Killed in Afghanistan
Two U.S.
Special Forces troops and more than 30 Afghans were killed during a
firefight with the Taliban in Afghanistan’s northern Kunduz province. A
joint U.S.-Afghan operation was underway, targeting Taliban commanders
northeast of the city of Kunduz, when militants ambushed the U.S. and
Afghan forces. Two senior Taliban commanders and 65 insurgents were
also killed in the raid.
The Cipher Take:
Taliban militants
overran the city of Kunduz last month but were driven out by U.S. and
Afghan forces after ten days of fighting. Last fall, the Taliban held
the city of Kunduz for 15 days before Afghan troops were able to retake
it. Taliban orchestrated violence continues to plague Afghanistan and
the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan is cause for grave
concern for American policymakers. Recent reports have emerged that
new, secret peace talks between the Afghan government and Taliban
officials are currently underway in Qatar, yet violence continues.
ISIS Leader Says No Retreat from Mosul
ISIS leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released his first statement in almost year,
telling his followers that there could be no retreat from Mosul and
that they must carry out a "total war" against the forces
moving into the city. The statement was released by ISIS' media wing
al-Furqan and Baghdadi expressed confidence that ISIS would prevail
over the advancing coalition. Currently, Baghdadi’s whereabouts are
unknown, although he was rumored to have been injured by an air strike
in April.
The Cipher Take:
In his more than
30-minute recording, Baghdadi urged ISIS fighters to
hold their ground, warned Iraqi Sunnis not to trust the Shia-led Iraqi
government, recalled past atrocities committed by Shia militias against
Iraqi Sunnis, and called for fighters to attack Turkish forces as well
as Saudi Arabia. The message is the first since Baghdadi was supposedly
injured in an air strike; in it, he mentions the names of two recently
killed ISIS commanders, demonstrating that the recording is indeed
recent.
Shi'a Militias Move to Cut Mosul Off from Syria
According to
Reuters, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – largely Iran-backed Shi’a
militias – pushed close to the Iraqi town of Tal Afar on Thursday. Tal
Afar and the Muhalabiya district provide an access point into Mosul for
ISIS soldiers and supplies from Syria; they also hold the most likely
route of escape from Mosul once the battle there intensifies. By
cutting off these routes, the PMF are hoping to completely encircle
ISIS fighters in Mosul.
The Cipher Take:
Taking Tal Afar will
be an important step in cutting off Mosul from communication with, and
resupply from, ISIS strongholds in Syria. However, the fact that Shi’a
PMF forces are leading the attack on Tal Afar is worrying. The PMF have
a reputation for carrying out violent reprisals against Sunni – and
other minority – towns that they occupy. What’s more, Turkish president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has suggested that Turkish troops at the Bashiqa
airbase in northern Iraq may be dispatched to prevent atrocities
against Sunni communities in Iraq. Given the currently abysmal state of
relations between Ankara and Baghdad, the conduct of PMF units in Tal
Afar bears close watching.
Saad al Hariri Named Prime Minister in Lebanon
Lebanon’s
newly elected President, Michel Aoun, asked Saad al Hariri to take the
post of Prime Minister and form a new government on Thursday. This
nomination marks the completion of a political deal between the
Saudi-backed Hariri and Aoun, who is closely tied to Hezbollah. By
ending the political crisis, which has plagued Lebanon for years, this
deal will hopefully allow a new government to form and fill vital
cabinet posts.
The Cipher Take:
This is good news
for the country, which has been left without a president or a fully
functioning government since May 2014. However, Aoun’s election
suggests that the political balance within Lebanon has shifted even
further towards Hezbollah, a powerful Shiite
militia based in the country’s south. The posts of president, prime
minister, and parliamentary speaker are respectively reserved for a
Maronite Christian, a Sunni, and a Shi’a. Now that the Hezbollah-linked
Aoun occupies the presidency, the political balance of power has
shifted against Hariri and his Saudi backers.
Myanmar Police to Train and Arm Civilians in Religiously
Divided Region
Police will
begin training and arming non-Muslim civilians in Rakhine State, an
area long troubled by violence between Buddhists and the Muslim
Rohingya group. October was an especially violent month that saw
hundreds killed in sectarian violence. Security forces have stated they
wish to empower Buddhist civilians to protect themselves from Muslim
militants and the training and equipment is available to “citizens
only.” The Myanmar government does not recognize the Rohingya as a
native ethnic group and therefore the 1.1 million Rohingya in Myanmar
cannot become citizens.
The Cipher Take:
For decades, the
government has refused to recognize the Rohingya as citizens and they
have remained a people without a state. While Myanmar under new leader
Aung San Suu Kyi has made strides to reconcile the conflicts between
its many ethnic groups, the Rohingya have remained excluded from these
negotiations. The group’s marginalization has precipitated much of the
tension between it and Buddhist ethnic groups. This effort by the
security forces to arm Buddhist citizens is likely to drive an even
bigger wedge between the Muslims and non-Muslims. Reconciliation will
remain a remote prospect.
NGO Conducts First Survey of Civilians in North Korea
An unnamed NGO
working inside North Korea in partnership with the Center for Strategic
and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a survey of 36 North Korean
citizens on how they perceived the Kim Jong Un regime. The respondents
were from all over the country and from different occupations. Nearly
all respondents admitted that they have complaints about the regime and
that they made jokes about the Kim regime in private.
The Cipher Take:
This is a very small
sample size, but it is significant nonetheless. Victor Cha, the chair
of Korea Studies at CSIS said: “It’s only 36 people, but it’s 36 people
more than anyone else has surveyed in North Korea. The findings are
modest, but they’re pretty insightful.” As the project continues, we
can hope that a larger sample size can deliver even more insight into
the reclusive nation. Since so little is known about the opinions of
North Korean citizens currently residing in the DPRK, this sort of
information is of particular use to U.S. and South Korean policymakers
as well as NGOs who promote Korean unification and other reconciliation
efforts.
Coordinated International Police Operation Targets Dark
Net
Law
enforcement agencies around the world have undertaken a coordinated
operation, codenamed Operation Hyperion, targeting vendors and users of
dark net marketplaces, resulting in the identification of thousands of
individuals. New Zealand police and the FBI have suggested they have
spoken with 150 individuals each; Canadian police have arrested an
individual suspected of distributing narcotics internationally; and
Swedish police have identified around 3,000 suspected buyers within
their borders. U.S. agencies such as the Postal Inspection Service,
CBP, IRS, ICE and ATF all coordinated with international partners from
the U.K., Australia, Ireland, France, Spain and Finland in the
operation.
The Cipher Take:
The Dark Net is a
portion of the internet only accessible through encrypted browsers that
ensure a user's anonymity through a series relay points around the
globe. While such a place does serve a legitimate purpose for
journalists, activists, and the security conscious, it also facilitates
crime by hosting hidden service marketplaces. These illicit bazaars can
peddle narcotics, child pornography, counterfeit documents and cash,
weapons, secrets, and hacking toolkits. The FBI has previously
deanonymized visitors to a child pornography vendor by installing
malware through their browsers, leading to arrests. A major part of
Operation Hyperion seems to be revealing the identities of vendors and
buyers—a strategy of deterrence through intimidation intended to
dissuade others from participating in the trade.
DDoS Attack Takes Liberia Off the Internet
Liberia has
experienced massive distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks
continuously over the past seven days. The attack flooded the country's
sole fiber optic connected telecommunications company, Lonestar Cell
MTN, with false internet traffic until it crashed, cutting off internet
access to the entire country. The culprits behind the attack are unknown,
but they were using Botnet 14—a Mirai-based botnet that piggy-backs off
internet connected devices such as cameras, DVRs, and other household
connected devices with weak login credentials.
The Cipher Take:
These attacks
resemble the DDoS attack targeting DNS provider Dyn in October, which
essentially shut down access to major websites like Twitter and the New
York Times. While the Dyn attack flooded servers with over 1,100
gigabytes of data per second, the attacks in Liberia are still among
the largest ever with around 600 gigabytes per second. Some fear
attacks could reach up to 10 terabytes (10,000 gigabytes) per
second—enough to halt internet access for any country.
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