lunes, 5 de diciembre de 2016

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Here's what (and who) to read this week on The Cipher Brief

Predicting the Future: Anticipating Security Events with Data Analytics

In the last few decades there has been enormous growth in available electronic data, including anything from social media posts, internet browsing logs, and communications metadata—the who, when, where, and how of our digital interactions—to surveillance camera footage, biometric datasets, criminal databases, and credit card records. The result? An unprecedented pool of information at the fingertips of law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Read more

Russian Energy Leverage in Central and Eastern Europe

Russia has historically used energy politics to influence developments in Central and Eastern Europe. But after the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute in 2009, which cut supplies to southeastern Europe, the Europeans have become more vigilant of their dependence on Russian energy. The Cipher Brief analyzes the current state of Russian energy leverage in Central and Eastern Europe, possible implications for the United States, and what the U.S. can do to help the region gain energy independence from Moscow.
  • David Koranyi Director, Eurasian Energy Futures Initiative, Atlantic Council
  • Balázs Jarábik Nonresident Scholar, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Bitter Enemies to Trusted Friends: The Future of U.S.-Japan Relations

The November 18th meeting between President-elect Donald Trump and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was Trump's first with a foreign head of state, demonstrating both the importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship and Japanese concerns over Trump's views on TPP and East Asian security. As the President-elect's foreign policy vision coalesces, and on the 75th anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, The Cipher Brief asks: what is the future of U.S.-Japan relations? 
  • Nicholas Szechenyi Deputy Director of the Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Dr. Thomas Cynkin Former Vice President and General Manager, Fujitsu Ltd.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership After Trump

President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly criticized the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during his campaign as a "bad deal" that would unfairly disadvantage American workers and export jobs to Asia. He has promised to renegotiate the agreement or, more likely, back out of the deal altogether. Assuming that Trump follows through with his campaign promises, The Cipher Brief looks at the future of the TPP and what trade in the Asia Pacific might look like in a period of possible American retrenchment.
  • Clyde Prestowitz Founder and President, Economic Strategy Institute
  • Gary Hufbauer Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

The Cipher Brief Podcast: 15 Minutes

15 Minutes is a weekly interview podcast with the biggest names in the global security space.

In a post–election special edition,The Cipher Brief's Executive Editor Fionnuala Sweeney talks to Jack Keane, retired four-star general and former Vice Chief of Staff of the United States Army. She asks General Keane for his insight on President-elect Donald Trump's choice for Secretary of Defense, retired Marine Corps General James Mattis, who Keane recommended to the transition team.
Listen to 15 Minutes with General Jack Keane on General Mattis

Also this week,The Cipher Brief’s Executive Producer and Reporter Leone Lakhani talks to Steve Murphy, one of the DEA agents who was instrumental in bringing down Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar. Murphy and his partner Javier Pena were depicted in the Netflix series Narcos, during their hunt for Escobar. Leone asks Murphy how much of the series was accurate, how much was pure Hollywood, and what really happened the day the “King of Cocaine” was killed.

Listen to Part 1 and Part 2 of 15 Minutes with Steve Murphy here.

[A word of warning, if you’re still watching Narcos, here’s your spoiler alert!]

Columnists This Week

Agenda Setter
An Open Letter to the CIA Director Nominee
Doug Wise Former Deputy Director, Defense Intelligence Agency

Fine Print
Walter Pincus The Cipher Brief

Network Take
U.S. Presidents vs. the Kremlin
John Sipher and Stephen L. Hall 
Former Members, CIA Senior Intelligence Service

Strategic View
The Failure to Negotiate with North Korea
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
 Former Director, National Counterproliferation Center

State of Play
Narcos: An Interview with the DEA's Steve Murphy - Part 2
Leone Lakhani
 The Cipher Brief

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The Dead Drop

The Cipher Brief's weekly inside look at news and gossip from the world of national security and intelligence.

STATE OF AFFAIRS: As The Dead Drop was going to press (or whatever the electronic equivalent of “going to press” is) – it was still uncertain who President-elect Trump was going to nominate as Secretary of State. One name prominently mentioned was that of retired General David Petraeus. As a possible compromise candidate to mollify both the “Never Romney” and “Never Rudy” crowds, Petraeus has his own set of baggage. The Dead Drop wondered – if Petraeus were confirmed for the post – since he is still under probation – would he need to check out with probation officers before setting off on world travels as SECSTATE?
Catch up here. Got a tip? Email us at and share the scoop. We promise to protect our sources and methods.

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