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U.S.-North Korea Summit Cancelled, Now What?
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Photo:
Jacklin Nguyen/The Cipher Brief
President Donald
Trump has informed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that he will not be
attending the summit between the two leaders set to take
place in Singapore on June 12, following a series of aggressive
statements made by both parties.
It is not yet
clear whether the cancellation of the high-stakes summit
marks a temporary diplomatic setback, or the end of a period of progress
toward peace. However, following Trump's cancellation of the summit,
North Korea issued a statement saying Kim Jong Un is still willing to
meet the U.S. president "at any time."
Ambassador Joseph
DeTrani, who served as U.S. Special Envoy for the Six Party Talks
with North Korea and has extensive experience navigating the
back-and-forth, explains how he views this development:
- “President
Donald Trump’s letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un canceling
the June 12 summit was unexpected, given recent statements
from the President and Secretary Mike Pompeo that the U.S. wanted to
move forward with the Summit. However, the bombastic statement
yesterday from North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui,
saying North Korea can “meet in a meeting room or at a
nuclear-to-nuclear showdown” was way over the top, as was her
comment about Vice President Pence."
- "In
my view, Kim Jong Un was aware of the critical statement from his
Vice Foreign Minister. The question, then, is why did he permit her
to use that language when he was on the cusp of having a meeting
with President Donald Trump? Kim seemingly was prepared for
this summit and knew clearly that comprehensive, verifiable,
irreversible dismantlement (CVID) was the U.S. position — which it
has been since 1994. Kim also knew that he would be receiving
the security assurances and a path to normal relations with the
U.S., which is what he wants. So why blow it with such a
provocative and insulting letter from his Vice Foreign Minister? It’s possible Kim may have
had second thoughts about signing up to CVID."
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North Korea’s Denuclearization: Is Cuba a Better Model
than Libya?
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A few members of
the Trump administration, in particular Vice President Mike Pence and national
security advisor John Bolton, have publicly discussed the "Libya
model" as a roadmap for denuclearization in North Korea, and
it's believed that these comments played a role in irritating the North
Korean regime over the past few weeks.
But the North
Koreans aren't the only ones who didn't take to Bolton's discussion of
Libya;. Former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Gary Grappo
thinks it's a "diplomatic malapropism" — and suggests instead
we look to Cuba:
- "[Bolton's]
first fault is obvious. If there were an argument
for keeping his nuclear weapons, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
needn’t look far. It’s Libya. NATO and the UN Security Council,
which had authorized NATO’s military intervention in
Libya, might have looked at the Libyan crisis of 2011 much
differently had the Libyan tyrant retained his WMD."
- "A
second fault with Bolton’s diplomatic malapropism was the difference
in the level of sophistication of the dismantled Libyan
WMD effort and that of a still very active North Korean program.
Libya was years, if not decades, away from actually having anything
approaching what North Korea has today...North Korea is a nuclear
power now."
- "Perhaps
what Mr. Bolton should have proposed was an improved Cuba model. In the fall of 1962, an
American spy plan confirmed the Soviet Union’s construction of
ballistic missile sites on the island of Cuba, a mere 90 miles from
the US mainland...the U.S., much to the disappointment of some
hardliner anti-Cuba/Castro elements of Congress, never invaded Cuba."
- "Of
course, the US found other ways of blockading Cuba, namely a comprehensive set
of economic and financial sanctions that effectively choked the
communist nation’s sputtering economy. That’s where Mr. Bolton might
have offered a genuine sweetener to the Cuba model. Had Bolton
suggested a gradual lifting of US economic and financial sanctions
on North Korea in addition to a non-invasion promise, he might have
gotten the attention of the North Korean leader. The lifting of US
and UN sanctions could be timed with Kim’s denuclearization."
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Your Weekly Intelligence Gossip
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It's
Friday...which means time for a new issue of The Dead Drop! Be sure to check
out our intel gossip column for all the latest and greatest insider
scoops and strange happenings.
A snippet for you:
- LOST
AND NOT FOUND DEPARTMENT: Last week, The Dead Drop told you about the
USAF 91st Security Group which reportedly lost a box of MK19
grenades when they fell out of a moving truck. These things can
happen. The Air Force, in an abundance of caution, ordered the unit
to do a complete inventory of its other weapons, just to make sure
nothing else had gone missing. Oops. According to the website Task
and Purpose, the unit now reports that it has also misplaced an M240
machine gun. As far as we know, the 150 ICBMs for which the Missile
Wing is responsible, remain in U.S. government possession.
Nonetheless, on Tuesday, the Security Group Commander lost something
else – his job.
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