The Chinese Communist Party Conference: Certain Present, Uncertain Future
|
|
All eyes are on Beijing as the 19th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) begins today.
The Congress meets once every five years to select key leadership throughout the party, but this time, it's the 'Xi Jinping show.'
- Current President Xi Jinping is expected to be named for a second five-year term as General Secretary of the CCP, and increase his grip on power through appointing his allies to the Standing Committee of the Politburo.
- Xi is already mentioned alongside modern China's two most powerful leaders — Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. The question — which this Party Congress may answer: Will Xi stand in their shadow, or alongside them?
- By centralizing power and tying so many critical variables in China to himself, Xi may be injecting more instability into the Chinese system rather than less. Should the international community fear Xi's supremacy...or his failure?
For more insight into Xi's political base within the CCP, China's priorities for the future, and what to watch at the Party Congress, read the full brief.
From our experts...
John McLaughlin, former Acting Director of the CIA:
- "Xi has certainly centralized decision-making and tightened the leadership’s grip on the party — or at least his personal grip. Xi has done this mainly through an extensive anti-corruption campaign — no issue has more political salience in China than corruption."
- "On the economy, Xi and the party are still struggling. Chinese growth, hovering around the 7 percent range, is the lowest in 25 years...Xi has shied away from cutting deeply into the big state-owned enterprises that make up more than 30 percent of the economy and are the source of much corruption."
Read more from McLaughlin on how the last five years have shaped Xi's presidency.
Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China:
- "If Xi ends up with near-absolute power this month, what will Chinese foreign policy look like? The one thing we know is that external policies will, for the most part, be domestically driven."
- "Xi’s political base in the Communist Party is composed of its most hostile elements, especially a young officer corps un-tempered by the horrors of war and apparently itching to fight."
|
|
ISIS is Losing Raqqa. What's Next?
|
|
The battle for Raqqa, ISIS' de facto capital in Syria, is coming to an end, but the terrorist group still has ways of raising funds and plenty of cash on hand.
- The loss of Raqqa is certainly a devastating blow; ISIS has lost nearly all of its territory in Iraq and only holds a shrinking chunk of Deir al Zour in eastern Syria.
- A mixed impact on financing: Losing territory means the group has less income, but its operating expenses are also lower.
- In many ways, while the operation to retake Raqqa is a critical benchmark, the loss of its territory in Iraq and Syria will free ISIS resources up for more traditional terrorist operations abroad.
|
|
Commentary from ODNI's Point Man on Iran
|
|
Until last Friday, Norman T. Roule was the U.S. intelligence community's "mission man" on Iran, responsible for pulling together collection and analysis on the country from across the various intel agencies.
On the Iran Deal...Roule has a clear message for President Trump and the White House:
- "Tehran’s behavior justifies the need for a fresh approach to Iran policy, but we should retain the JCPOA and develop our new policy in concert with our friends in Europe and the Middle East."
|
|
» Want to hear what Roule thinks about Iran? So did Michael Morell, former Acting Director of the CIA.
One quote: "I believe based on the IAEA published reports that Iran is indeed executing it’s JCPOA obligations, albeit I sometimes think in a minimal, minimalistic fashion. At the same time, Iran’s missile program and regional activity are terrifically destabilizing and moving in a very bad direction."
Check out their conversation on the latest episode of Intelligence Matters - here on our website, or on iTunes.
|
» From the archives, on Iran: TCB's CEO, Suzanne Kelly, spent 15 Minutes with Jake Sullivan, who served as former VP Joe Biden's national security advisor, and played a key role in the negotiation of the JCPOA. Listen here.
» Also, don't miss our Daily Podcast! It's an audio rundown of the exclusive content you see every day on The Cipher Brief.
In today's Daily, you'll hear from a special guest: Callie Wang, The Cipher Brief's VP of Analysis.
Check it out on iTunes! |
|
On the Hill: Trump's Nominee for CIA Inspector General
|
|
At a nomination hearing for his formal appointment as CIA’s inspector general, the now-acting IG Christopher Sharpley faced tough questions:
- Lawmakers asked Sharpley about his handling of whistleblower complaints, and his handling of a classified Senate document on allegations of torture by the agency.
A bigger problem: Trump has not yet nominated anyone for the position of Inspector General of the Intelligence Community, who is responsible for conducting audits and reviews across all of it. Read more on Sharpley's nomination hearing from TCB's Mackenzie Weinger.
|
|
Mapping Conflict: Taliban Gaining Control in Afghanistan
|
|
 |
Above: Map from Foundation for the Defense of Democracies' Long War Journal, showing districts in Afghanistan controlled and contested by the Taliban.
Taliban militants attacked several government targets yesterday across multiple provinces in Afghanistan, killing at least 69 people.
- Both the Taliban and ISIS target U.S. troops and Afghan Security Forces on a near daily basis in Afghanistan.
- The Taliban currently controls more territory in Afghanistan than at any point since 2001. Afghan Security Forces are believed to be in control of less than 60 percent of the country.
From the archive: Read General Michael Hayden's take on President Trump's Afghanistan strategy speech, given back in August. |
|
The Cipher Brief is hiring.
We fill in the context beyond the headlines of national security, helping our readers understand the nuance in complex geopolitics. Come join us.Featured Job: National Security CorrespondentAs a Cipher Brief National Security Correspondent, you will be responsible for making sure we’re on top of national and global security events. Find the good stuff. Leave the rest for everyone else. Find out more
|
|
|
|
