Today's
Insight
South Korea's Presidential Crisis: Is Democracy
Stuck in Park? | Will Edwards, The
Cipher Brief
Since it declared independence in 1948, the Republic of Korea, now in
its sixth iteration, has shifted between democracy and authoritarian
rule...despite the reforms that brought about the Sixth Republic,
democratic progress is not guaranteed.
Expert Commentary
Impeaching the Queen, Korean Style | Won-ho Park, Associate Professor of Political Science,
Seoul National University
If the court rules for the impeachment, a by-election must occur
under law within 60 days to choose the next president. Without
any transition period, the president-elect would be sworn into the
office the day after being declared the winner of the election.
If the court rules against the impeachment, Park will return to
office to what is left of her presidency, in which case the election
is scheduled to take place in December.
Pyongyang Will Take Advantage of South Korea's
Political Vacuum | Eunjung Lim, Lecturer, Korea Studies, Johns
Hopkins SAIS
From South Korea’s point of view, the year of 2016 will be remembered
as one of the most challenging years since the armistice of the
Korean War was signed in 1953. North Korea conducted its fourth and
fifth nuclear tests on January 6 and September 9 respectively, and it
continued testing various types of ballistic missiles, more than
twenty times in 2016 alone.
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The
Cipher Take
Syrian Islamist Group Will Not Join Talks
Ahrar al Sham, one of the most powerful rebel groups in Syria, said
on Wednesday that it would not attend Russian and Turkish-brokered
peace talks set to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan on January 23. Most
other rebels said that they would join the peace talks on Monday,
with the caveat that they would only discuss ceasefire provisions and
humanitarian issues, not a political resolution. Ahrar al Sham claims
that its refusal to attend the talks is a response to continued
violations of the countrywide ceasefire, which took effect on
December 29, by Syrian government forces. They also said, however,
that they might support a favorable compromise negotiated by the
opposition groups that will attend the meeting.
The Cipher
Take:
Although Ahrar
says that it could accept a favorable result from the Astana
negotiations, their refusal to attend the talks is still a major blow
to the summit’s legitimacy. The fact that talks are going forward is
a sign that, despite ceasefire violations by the Syrian government,
peace talks in Astana will be able to move forward. However, Ahrar’s
absence and the fact that the rebel delegation will not discuss a
wider political resolution with Damascus could undermine the talks.
In addition, the role of currently excluded groups like the Kurdish
PYD or the Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fatah al Sham (formerly Al Nusra
Front) still remains unclear. On the other side of the table, Syrian
President Bashar al Assad and his Iranian allies will be loath to
pursue serious compromise, even at Russia’s urging. The road to peace
in Syria remains narrow and difficult.
Eastern Mosul Liberated
Lieutenant-General Talib Shaghati announced on
Wednesday that Iraqi forces had successfully liberated almost all of
the eastern half of Mosul. Carried out by Iraqi Counterterrorism
Services (CTS), regular army, and national police units, the
operation was met by fierce ISIS resistance. Some fighting in
northeastern Mosul continued Wednesday as regular Army troops cleared
areas along the Tigris river, which bisects the city. However, said
Shaghati, “today we celebrate…the liberation of the eastern bank of
Mosul.”
The Cipher
Take:
Victory in eastern
Mosul has come slower than previously expected due to steadfast
resistance by ISIS fighters, snipers, and suicide bombers. But, after
pausing the offensive to regroup and receive reinforcements last
December, Iraqi forces have made steady gains, and Iraqi Prime
Minister Haider al Abadi claims that the liberation of western Mosul
will soon follow. However, the most critical battle is not the one
currently being fought against ISIS, but rather the political battle for the city’s future
that will follow. Turkish-backed, Iran-backed, and central government
actors in northern Iraq will all be vying for political power in
Iraq’s second largest city once ISIS is driven out.
Istanbul Attacker Received Direct Orders from ISIS
Abdulkadir Masharipov, an Uzbek national who is the
main suspect in the New Year's Eve attack at Istanbul’s Reina
nightclub reportedly told Turkish authorities that he acted on direct
orders from ISIS in Syria. He also said that he changed his target at
the last minute to avoid heavy security. Masharipov was apprehended
on Monday in Esenyurt, a suburb of Istanbul, along with another man
and three women.
The Cipher
Take:
Masharipov
reportedly told authorities that he had initially been told to attack
Istanbul’s popular Taksim Square area based on instructions from
Raqqa, ISIS’ de facto capital in Syria. As ISIS continues to lose
territory in its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, the group is likely
to double down on its external operations and its efforts to
disseminate its propaganda to inspire lone-wolf attacks, particularly
in Turkey and throughout Europe.
Commander of PACOM Comments on ISIS at International
Security Dialogue
On Wednesday, Admiral Harry Harris, the Commander of
the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) discussed the threat of ISIS
militants returning to their home countries as ISIS territory
shrinks, stating, “it’s not a theory. It’s real. In the past year
alone, ISIL has made its murderous intentions clear in places like
Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and the United
States.”
The Cipher
Take:
The threat of ISIS
members returning home is a very real and unpredictable one. As the
terrorist organization loses ground, it will likely change its
strategy towards surprise attacks worldwide. But the risks posed to
the countries of South and Southeast Asia vary greatly: some, like
India, have robust counterterrorism forces whereas others, such as
Bangladesh, are in the nascent stages of developing counterterrorism
capabilities. For its part, the United States cooperates with and
provides assistance to many countries in the region, like the
Philippines, in order to prevent or respond to terrorism.
PACOM Commander Also Comments on the South China Sea
In the same forum, ADM Harris went on to discuss the
U.S. stance on China’s construction and militarization of artificial
islands in the South China Sea: “we will not allow the shared domains
to be closed down unilaterally -- no matter how many bases are built
on artificial features in the South China Sea.”
The Cipher
Take:
Harris’s comments
on the South China Sea are consistent with the United States’
longstanding policy regarding it and other maritime regions. However,
Rex Tillerson, President-elect Trump’s pick for secretary of state,
made comments in his recent confirmation hearing that took that
stance one step further, and have the potential to escalate the U.S.
stance on the South China Sea: “We’re going to have to send China a
clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your
access to those islands is also not going to be allowed.” Once Trump
takes office, determining whether U.S. policy on this issue will
change or remain the same will be one of his most important foreign
policy decisions.
Israel Deploys New Missile Defense System
Israel has deployed its new Arrow 3 missile defense
system, which will extend its defense against incoming ballistic
missiles all the way to outer space. As part of the system, Arrow 3
missiles will fly into space, where warheads will detach and
subsequently track and strike their targets. The system was
U.S.-funded and jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and
Boeing prior to being handed over to the Israeli Air Force.
The Cipher
Take:
Israel has
previously implemented two defense systems to shoot down incoming
missiles. The most well-known, Iron Dome, is a short-range
interceptor that has been used to shoot down incoming missiles from
the Gaza Strip. A second system, the Arrow 2, is designed to
intercept projectiles both high and low within the atmosphere. The
Arrow 3 system is meant to protect against incoming nuclear,
biological, or chemical missiles that may be launched from Iran or
other regional adversaries. Israel is currently developing another
system, known as David's Sling, to shoot down lower-altitude
missiles, such as those in the arsenal of Hezbollah.
Russia Extends Snowden's Asylum
The spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Maria Zakharova, confirmed that Edward Snowden has received
an extension on his residence permit in Russia under political
asylum. The announcement was made in a public Facebook post; in her
comments, Zakharova responded to a column written by the
former acting director of the CIA Michael Morell in the Cipher Brief.
The Cipher
Take:
This is the second
time Snowden’s asylum has been extended since he first arrived in
Moscow in 2013. Now, as confirmed by Snowden’s lawyers, it seems that
his asylum status has been extended for another three years, giving
him the legal grounds to apply for Russian citizenship after he has
spent a total of five years living on Russian territory.
Assange Flip-Flops Following Manning's Commuted
Sentence
Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, previously
indicated that he would allow himself to be taken to the United
States should the Obama administration grant Chelsea Manning
clemency. Last September, WikiLeaks tweeted: “If Obama grants Manning
clemency, Assange will agree to U.S. prison in exchange—despite its
clear unlawfulness,” a statement reiterated earlier this month. On
Tuesday, in an action that appears to be unrelated to Assange’s
proposed deal, President Obama announced plans to commute Manning’s
sentence; she will be released in May. WikiLeaks followed up by
tweeting “Assange is still happy to come to the US provided all his
rights are guaranteed despite White House now saying Manning was not
quid-quo-pro.” However, his lawyer has since indicated Assange
will in fact not do so, as Manning will not be released immediately,
but rather in May.
The Cipher
Take:
Ultimately,
Assange’s claim to move to a U.S. trial was somewhat meaningless in
the first place, as the charges against him are for sexual assault in
Sweden, and the U.S. has yet to charge him or file an extradition
request. Manning, however, is the more interesting story. The former
U.S. Army private did not have a specific story to tell via the
leaks, but rather indiscriminately burned files onto CDs—revealing
major security vulnerabilities that could have been used for
espionage instead—and handed them to a publication outlet. Though
Manning’s leak was among the largest breaches in U.S. history, the
Pentagon’s Information Review Task Force that investigated the
fallout of the disclosures concluded that no instances were ever
found of any individual killed by enemy forces as a result of having
been named in the releases. However, the State Department did have to
relocate diplomats due to the breach and some of the Afghan war logs
were found in the digital files of Osama bin Laden. The original
35-year sentence given to Manning was reportedly made intentionally harsh
in order to to deter future leaks, but critics have pointed out that
it may have contributed to Edward Snowden’s decision to flee the
country rather than face the same fate—winning him martyr status
among many. Former leaders of the U.S. military and intelligence
communities have reacted strongly to the commutation, warning it sets
a dangerous precedent for those trusted with the nation’s secrets –
particularly in an increasingly digital age. For the reaction
of The Cipher Brief’s Network of Experts, read more here.
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Upcoming
Cipher Brief Events
Foreign Influance, Domestic Division: Russia,
the 2016 Election, and the Intelligence Community | Thursday, January 26, Washington, D.C.
Please join our high-level intelligence panel that includes Rob
Richer, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, and John Sipher who combined, have over
80 years of service with the CIA. Some key points they will be
discussing are; the current state of relations with Moscow and the
likelihood of an improvement in those relations under President-Elect
Donald Trump.
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